If Eskom’s most severe projection of Stage 8 or higher power outages during the upcoming winter season materialises, the consequences would be catastrophic for a nation that is already experiencing a downward trajectory.
By Mbali Mthembu
Although Eskom executives deny it, signs are that the nation is approaching a dangerous point of grid failure due to the rapid decrease in the company’s power supply capability.
The acting CEO, Calib Cassim, acknowledged to journalists on Thursday that the power grid has lost an unparalleled 3,000 megawatts. He expressed concern that this will make the upcoming winter season challenging for South Africa.
Cassim advised citizens to exercise restraint in their use of electricity in order to “protect the grid”. However, he maintained that the occurrence of a power outage in the country was unlikely.
“We envisage a worst-case scenario of having to cut 8,000 megawatts from the electricity.” This means a record stage 16 load shedding. It means Eskom will cut power for up to 16 hours in a 32-hour cycle.
“The winter outlook indicates an increased risk of supply shortfall against expected demand,” Cassim says. “With our worst-case scenario indicating that load-shedding could intensify to Stage 8 if our interventions are not successful.”
The introduction of Stage 8 would mark an unparalleled event in the persistent electricity crisis. Presently at Stage 6, the nation endures power cuts for 12 hours within a 32-hour period.
Cassim stated that the power company and the system operator have put in significant effort to create a strategy to reduce load-shedding, with a specific emphasis on improving the energy availability factor (EAF) of power plants.
To attain this objective, Cassim asserts that Eskom must maintain unplanned load losses at or below 15,000MW. He further added that if these losses surpass 18,000MW, the likelihood of stage 8 load shedding will be exceedingly high.
He said Eskom’s winter peak demand was expected to be more than 33,000MW, saying “the current unplanned electricity losses have deteriorated to around 16 000MW, impacted by breakdowns at Kusile, Medupi and maintenance at Koeberg Nuclear Power Station.”
South Africa has been experiencing power supply disruptions, resulting in alternating between Stage 4 and Stage 6 load-shedding. The utility company has now raised concerns about a potential loss of approximately 18,000MW during the upcoming winter season.
According to Cassim, this has already started because it was evident over the past weekend. If the anticipated peak demand materialises, “load-shedding will be required every day and will be implemented up to Stage 8,” Cassim warned.
Eskom has identified July and August as the most probable months to experience Stage 8 power cuts, while May and June are expected to have a maximum of Stage 7. However, if the predicted demand persists, it is unlikely that load-shedding will decrease below Stage 6.
Cassim was adamant that Stage 8 did not imply that the integrity of the national grid was in jeopardy.
“The increase in load-shedding levels does not mean there is a greater risk of a national blackout, instead load-shedding is one of the processes we use to prevent such an occurrence by managing the demand for electricity at a given time,” Cassim said.
He said Eskom’s goal is to boost electricity production in the winter season by decreasing the unplanned losses in the generation fleet, minimising the required maintenance level and raising the use of diesel in its open-cycle gas turbines.
“Despite all these efforts, more needs to be done to reduce the level of electricity demand, specifically during the peak. We believe the public can greatly support efforts to mitigate the impact of the energy crisis especially over the winter period,” he said.